
Smart moves from China (breakingviews.com)
China's economic strategy may be outsmarting Hank Paulson
and his US colleagues. Tariffs on steel exports will disarm critics
in Congress. But they will also make Chinese steel products
more competitive. Meanwhile its stake in Blackstone, while
questionable on investment grounds, buys Beijing more
influence in Washington. This looks like a good example of
guanxi, the Chinese technique of using connections to achieve
one's ends, in action.
Conventional economic theory holds that to maximise economic
growth and raise the living standards of its people, a country
should allow free movement of capital, permitting the exchange
rate to float upwards, while removing subsidies and tariffs,
domestic and international, which distort the price mechanism.
China is not doing that. Instead it keeps the renminbi exchange
rate artificially low. Although the currency has climbed
somewhat against the dollar, its trade-weighted exchange rate
has devalued in recent years. That has caused an excessively
large trade surplus, which would normally bring retaliation from
trading partners. China is now engaged in a two-pronged
strategy to lessen the chances of a sharp US response.
First, Beijing has imposed tariffs on steel exports. At first glance,
this move looks as if it is intended to disarm the lobbying of the
politically powerful US steel industry. The effect will be to raise
world steel prices. But this could actually advantage China's
domestic manufacturers which will enjoy lower steel costs. This
should benefit its fast growing automobile industry.
Second, the Chinese government is engaged in a "strategic
dialogue" with Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson. This dialogue
should reinforce Paulson's own anti-protectionist beliefs.
Moreover, Beijing's substantial stake in Blackstone could turn
out to be a smart move. The buyout firm's partners are major
donors to New York Senator Charles Schumer, who is the
strongest advocate of tariffs on Chinese imports. Neutralising
Schumer is well worth $3bn.